EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy

Abdullah Ghazo

International Journal of Financial Research, 2021, vol. 12, issue 3, 70-77

Abstract: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are significant indicators to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development. They are also often used by decision makers so as to plan economic policy. This paper aims at modeling and predicting GDP and CPI in Jordan. In order to achieve this goal, the study applied the Box- Jenkins (JB) methodology for the period 1976-2019. Based on the results, ARIMA (3,1,1) found to be the best model for the GDP. In addition, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model for forecasting the CPI. The results were supported with the findings of the stationarity and identification rules test of time series under using AIC and SIC criterion. The forecasted values of the GDP and the CPI for the next three years (2020-2022) were (29342.12, 32095.10, 35106.36 million JD) and (128.31, 133.28, 139.28) respectively. Compared with 2019, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2020, while the CPI is forecasted to increase in 2020. This implies that the Jordanian economy is tending toward stagflation. After 2020, both GDP and CPI increased, which indicates that Jordanian economy is tending toward cost-push inflation.

Keywords: gross domestic product; consumer price index; forecasting; ARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/19287/12202 (application/pdf)
http://www.sciedu.ca/journal/index.php/ijfr/article/view/19287 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:70-77

DOI: 10.5430/ijfr.v12n3p70

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Financial Research is currently edited by Gina Perry

More articles in International Journal of Financial Research from International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Gina Perry ().

 
Page updated 2021-06-26
Handle: RePEc:jfr:ijfr11:v:12:y:2021:i:3:p:70-77