Kriege aus Sicht des Kapitalmarktes: Deutschland im Zweiten Weltkrieg / Germany in World War II: The Perspective of Capital Markets

Bruno Frey and Kucher Marcel
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Kucher Marcel: Institut für Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung, Universität Zürich, Blümlisalpstr. 10, CH-8006 Zürich

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 1999, vol. 218, issue 3-4, 361-384

Abstract: Historical events are reflected in asset prices. In this paper we analyze the prices of German government bonds traded in Switzerland during WWII.The econometric analysis reveals that some events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for events that occured during the war. The most prominent examples are the official outbreak of the war in 1939 or the war entry of the United States in 1941. Both events significantly set down the German government bond prices. On the other hand the financial markets in Switzerland stress the importance of some events, to which historians usually do not pay much attention: Examples include the Olympic Games in 1936 or the Yalta Conference in 1945. Finally, some events to which historians usually attach great attention are not reflected in bond prices at all: The most prominent example is the German capitulation in 1945.The analysis of financial markets is certainly no substitute to the traditional inquiries undertaken by historians. But it is a challenging complementary method to evaluate particular sentiments existing at a given moment of time.

Keywords: Financial markets; economic history; World War II; Germany; cliometrics; Finanzmärkte; Wirtschaftsgeschichte; Zweiter Weltkrieg; Deutschland; Kliometrie; Financial markets; economic history; World War II; Germany; cliometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1999
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:218:y:1999:i:3-4:p:361-384

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-1999-3-408

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