Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis

Friedrich Breyer and Ulrich Volker ()
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Ulrich Volker: Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Friedrich-Loeffler-Straße 70, D-17489 Greifswald. Tel.: (0 38 34) 86-24 67, Fax-2465

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2000, vol. 220, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.

Keywords: Health care expenditures; contribution rate; regression analysis; ageing; medical progress; Gesundheitsausgaben; GKV-Beitragssatz; Regressionsanalyse; Alterung; medizinischer Fortschritt; Health care expenditures; contribution rate; regression analysis; ageing; medical progress (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (39)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:220:y:2000:i:1:p:1-17

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2000-0102

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