Economics at your fingertips  

Gesundheitsausgaben, Alter und medizinischer Fortschritt: Eine Regressionsanalyse / Ageing, Medical Progress and Health Care Expenditures: A Regression Analysis

Friedrich Breyer () and Ulrich Volker ()
Additional contact information
Ulrich Volker: Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald, Rechts- und Staatswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Friedrich-Loeffler-Straße 70, D-17489 Greifswald. Tel.: (0 38 34) 86-24 67, Fax-2465

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2000, vol. 220, issue 1, 1-17

Abstract: It is the purpose of this study to forecast the future development of total expenditures of sickness funds in Germany under the assumption that present institutions remain unchanged. Previous approaches using present age-specific expenditure data are systematically flawed. In contrast, we use regression analysis to isolate the factors responsible for the expenditure increase in the time span 1970-95, viz. demographic ageing, increasing income and a time trend, which is interpreted as the result of medical progress. A projection of the estimated equation into the future yields an increase of the contribution rate to more than 23 per cent in the year 2040.

Keywords: Health care expenditures; contribution rate; regression analysis; ageing; medical progress (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2000
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (36) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) ... -0102.xml?format=INT (text/html)
For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) is currently edited by Peter Winker

More articles in Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().

Page updated 2019-05-31
Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:220:y:2000:i:1:p:1-17