Neues von der NAIRU? / News from the NAIRU?

Wolfgang Franz

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2001, vol. 221, issue 3, 256-284

Abstract: This paper is devoted to a new estimation of the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) for the West German Economy 1980 to 1998. The novelty of the paper is the estimation of a time-varying NAIRU for West Germany employing the Kalman method together with confidence intervals based on the application of a residual based bootstrap. As a result, the NAIRU for 1998 is estimated to lie between 7.9 and 8.5 percent. However, based on a presentation of the theoretical framework and a discussion of serious methodological problems the paper emphasizes several caveats which leave some doubts about the usefulness of the value of NAIRU estimates as guides for economic policy.

Keywords: NAIRU; unemployment; inflation; NAIRU; Arbeitslosigkeit; Inflation; NAIRU; unemployment; inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:221:y:2001:i:3:p:256-284

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2001-0303

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