Ost-West-Migrationspotenzial: Wie groß ist es? / East-West-Migration Potential: How many will go West?

Thomas Straubhaar

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2002, vol. 222, issue 1, 22-41

Abstract: How many people from Central and Eastern Europe (CEEC) will go West making use of the free movement of people after the EU East enlargement? An extrapolation of the empirical experience of the EU South enlargement shows that the emigration potential might reach a corridor between 0.2 % to 0.4 % of total CEEC-population per year. Annual net migraton (including return migration) might be about 0.1 % of total CEEC-population. If we assume that in a first wave 8 countries from CEEC will become EU members (i. e. Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovk Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia), the East-West migration potential will be about 3 % - 4 % (gross) and 11/2 % - 2% (net) of the total CEEC-population within the first 15 years after accession. This is about 3 million people (gross) resp. 1 to 1.5 million people (net) or about 0.8.% of the total EU population. Therefore, fears of "mass migration" seem highly exaggerated. Muchmore, with regard to the decline of the EU population and the ageing of the society the expected East-West-migration potentials will generate rather positive consequences.

Keywords: European economic integration; international migration; EU East enlargement; Europäische Integration; internationale Migration; EU-Osterweiterung; European economic integration; international migration; EU East enlargement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:222:y:2002:i:1:p:22-41

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2002-0104

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