Seasonal and Cyclical Properties of Ifo Business Test Variables / Saisonale und zyklische Eigenschaften von ifo Konjunkturtest Variablen

Gebhard Flaig

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2003, vol. 223, issue 5, 556-570

Abstract: In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is used to decompose the balances of Ifo Business survey data into the cyclical, the seasonal and the irregular components, as well as the working day effect. The empirical results show that the total cycle consists of three subcycles with about 3, 5 and 11 years. Each subcycle of the assessment variable is “similar” to the corresponding subcycle of the expectations variable. The seasonal pattern is changing over time and the working day effect is significant for the assessment of the current business situation and for the Ifo Business Climate, but not for the expectation series.

Keywords: Business cycles; business surveys; seasonality; working day effects; Konjunkturzyklus; Saison; Arbeitstageffekte; Konjunkturtest (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:223:y:2003:i:5:p:556-570

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2003-0504

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