Neuere Ansätze in der Konjunkturforschung durch die Verwendung von Konjunkturindikatoren / New Approaches in Business Cycle Research: The Application of Business Cycle Indicators

Oppenländer Karl Heinrich ()
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Oppenländer Karl Heinrich: Ulmenstr. 4, D-85521 Ottobrunn, Germany

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2004, vol. 224, issue 1-2, 152-165

Abstract: The question arises whether there can be an enrichment of business cycle research when business cycle indicators will be used in an increasing dimension. This article, dedicated to Professor Adolf Wagner, tries to differentiate three fields of research: Hypothesis formation in theory, characterisation of market imbalances and measurement of cycle and trend in empirical methods, short-term prognoses and turning point analyses in forecasting. Can we establish new hypotheses by considering expectations, gained from surveys? A special proposal aimed at the measure of the reference cycle by using the utilization of capacities in enterprises. It is evident, that when using business cycle indicators in business cycle research we can avoid the dichotomy between the three fields in business cycle research, which has been observed in the past.

Keywords: Business cycle research; business cycle indicators; reference cycle; leading indicators; measurement of cycle and trend; measurement without theory; Konjunkturforschung; Konjunkturindikatoren; Referenzzyklus; Frühindikatoren; Messung des Zyklus und des Trends; Messung ohne Theorie; Business cycle research; business cycle indicators; reference cycle; leading indicators; measurement of cycle and trend; measurement without theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:1-2:p:152-165

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2004-1-212

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