Besser geht’s nicht – Genauigkeitsgrenzen von Konjunkturprognosen / As Good as it Gets – Limits of Accuracy of Macroeconomic Short Term Forecasts

Heilemann Ullrich ()
Additional contact information
Heilemann Ullrich: Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Hohenzollernstraße 1 – 3 , D-45128 Essen Germany

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2004, vol. 224, issue 1-2, 51-64

Abstract: The paper aims at determining upper boundaries of accuracy (“error minima”) for German macroeconomic forecasts. The study is based on simulations with the RWI-model, a medium sized macroeconometric model for the FRG. A first upper limit of forecast accuracy is fixed by the accuracy of predetermined variables and outside sample stability of model relationships. Further limits are found by a decomposition of model forecast errors into “equation errors”, “model errors” and “errors of dynamics”. For forecasts of growth and inflation the model simulations suggest that (1) present forecast errors do not seem to have much potential for improvement; (2) primarily this potential seems to lie on the single equation level.

Keywords: Upper error boundaries of macroeconomic forecasts; error taxonomy; macroeconometric models; Simulation; Obere Fehlergrenzen makroökonomischer Prognosen; Fehlertaxonomie; makroökonometrische Modelle; Simulation; Upper error boundaries of macroeconomic forecasts; error taxonomy; macroeconometric models; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2004-1-205 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:224:y:2004:i:1-2:p:51-64

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2004-1-205

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) is currently edited by Peter Winker

More articles in Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().