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Sources of German Unemployment: Evidence from a Structural VAR Model / Die Hintergründe deutscher Arbeitslosigkeit: Evidenz von einem Strukturellen VAR

Tobias Linzert

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2004, vol. 224, issue 3, 317-336

Abstract: This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a small macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role.

Keywords: Unemployment; Structural VAR; cointegration; Arbeitslosigkeit; Strukturelles VAR; Kointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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