 Is Germany's GDP Trend-Stationary? A Measurement-With-Theory Approach / Ist das deutsche BIP trendstationär: Ein Measurement-With-Theory AnsatzBernd Lucke () Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2005, vol. 225, issue 1, 60-76 Abstract: The time series properties of German GDP have been re-examined in recent research. Extending the sample to include GDP data from 1950 onwards, some researchers argued in favor of a trend-stationary rather than difference stationary representation of real log GDP. I show that this conclusion is based on an atheoretic trend model underlying the unit root tests. A simple linear trend model fails to take the post World-War II catch-up process properly into account. I use the Solow growth model to discriminate between transitional catch-up dynamics and longrun equilibrium growth. With the proper transformation of GDP data, I am able to use standard unit root tests and find that both ADF and KPSS tests suggest a difference stationary model. This evidence is supported by non-standard unit root tests which allow for polynomial trend representations. Keywords: Solow growth model; transistional dynamics; unit root tests; Solow’sches Wachstumsmodell; Übergangsdynamik; Einheitswurzeltest (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:225:y:2005:i:1:p:60-76 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) is currently edited by Peter Winker More articles in Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) from De Gruyter |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.