Do Private Sector Forecasters Desire to Deviate From the German Council of Economic Experts?

Rülke Jan-Christoph ()
Additional contact information
Rülke Jan-Christoph: Department of Economics,WHU – Otto Beisheim School of Management, Burgplatz 2, 56179 Vallendar, Germany

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2012, vol. 232, issue 4, 414-428

Abstract: In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the Council’s real economy forecasts, i. e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the Council’s projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the Council. Splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the Council’s forecast.

Keywords: Private sector forecasters; herding; German Council of Economic Experts; Private sector forecasters; herding; German Council of Economic Experts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2012-0403 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:232:y:2012:i:4:p:414-428

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2012-0403

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) is currently edited by Peter Winker

More articles in Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik) from De Gruyter
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Golla ().