Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions: Smokers are Misinformed

Nicolas Ziebarth ()

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2018, vol. 238, issue 5, 395-421

Abstract: This paper empirically investigates biased beliefs about the risks of smoking. First, it confirms the established tendency of people to overestimate the lifetime risk of a smoker to contract lung cancer. In this paper’s survey, almost half of all respondents overestimate this risk. However, 80% underestimate lung cancer deadliness. In reality, less than one in five patients survive five years after a lung cancer diagnosis. Due to the broad underestimation of the lung cancer deadliness, the lifetime risk of a smoker to die of lung cancer is underestimated by almost half of all respondents. Smokers who do not plan to quit are significantly more likely to underestimate this overall mortality risk.

Keywords: smoking; lung cancer risk; five-year survival rate; subjective beliefs; risk perceptions; over optimism bias (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D84 I12 L66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:238:y:2018:i:5:p:395-421:n:3

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2018-0017

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