Unintended Consequences of the 2015 Refugee Surge on Residential Building Permits in Germany

Neukranz Nils and Zietz Joachim ()
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Neukranz Nils: 38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany
Zietz Joachim: 38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany

Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), 2025, vol. 245, issue 6, 623-641

Abstract: In this paper, we examine how building permit rates, in particular those for housing in one- and two-family homes, were affected by the presence of refugees in the wake of the 2015/16 refugee surge in Germany. Our panel data set covers all German counties with available data over the years 2011–2019. Our results show that a larger presence of refugees tended to lower the building permit rate, not in the very short run but over time. The effect is concentrated in the years 2017–2019 at the end of our sample. On average over those years, a doubling of the population’s refugee share induced a decline in the permit rate by 7 %–9 %. This suggests a lower future housing supply as a potential unintended consequence of the refugee surge.

Keywords: refugee surge; building permit rate; panel data; Germany (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 R1 R31 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:245:y:2025:i:6:p:623-641:n:1001

DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2023-0062

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