Empirical Analysis of Systematic Errors in Chilean GDP Forecasts

Romulo Chumacero

Journal of Forecasting, 2001, vol. 20, issue 1, 37-45

Abstract: This paper presents a statistical comparison between the actual and predicted evolution of the Chilean GDP for the period 1986-98 made by several forecasters. We show that the forecasters systematically underestimate the true growth rate of the economy. The magnitude of this bias tends to be correlated with the phase of the business cycle. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2001
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:37-45

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