Risk Premia and Long Rates in Ireland

Keith Cuthbertson and Don Bredin

Journal of Forecasting, 2001, vol. 20, issue 6, 391-403

Abstract: Using a number of long-term maturities and monthly data, 1989-97, we provide a number of tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure. The main insight in this paper is the use of the excess holding period return to provide a proxy for a possible time-varying term premium. Nearly all previous studies using the VAR methodology have used only the spread and the change in (short) rates and they have ignored the excess holding period return. We find that we cannot reject the EH, but we do reject the presence of time-varying risk premia. Copyright © 2001 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2001
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