Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting
Ioannis Asimakopoulos () and
Journal of Forecasting, 2004, vol. 23, issue 1, 51-66
An ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-of-season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixed-odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end-of-season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (31) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.877 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:23:y:2004:i:1:p:51-66
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by Derek W. Bunn
More articles in Journal of Forecasting from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Series data maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing ().