Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators
Ataman Ozyildirim (),
Brian Schaitkin and
Additional contact information
Brian Schaitkin: The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA, Postal: The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA
Victor Zarnowitz: The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA, Postal: The Conference Board-Economics Program, New York, USA
Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 29, issue 1-2, 6-28
Clusters of cyclical turning points in the coincident indicators help us identify and date euro area recessions and recoveries in the past several decades. In the USA and some other countries, composite indexes of coincident indicators (CEI) are used to date classical business cycle turning points; also indexes of leading indicators (LEI) are used to help in the difficult task of predicting these turning points. This paper reviews a selection of the available data for monthly and quarterly euro area coincident and leading indicators. From these data, we develop composite indexes using methods analogous to those tested in the US CEI and LEI published by The Conference Board. We compare the resulting business cycle chronology with the existing alternatives and evaluate our selection of leading indicators in the context of how well they predict current economic activity and its major fluctuations for the euro area. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1146 Link to full text; subscription required (text/html)
Working Paper: Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators (2008)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:6-28
Access Statistics for this article
Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by Derek W. Bunn
More articles in Journal of Forecasting from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing ().