Incorporating higher moments into value-at-risk forecasting

Arnold Polanski and Evarist Stoja
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Arnold Polanski: Queen's University Management School, Belfast, UK, Postal: Queen's University Management School, Belfast, UK
Evarist Stoja: School of Economics, Finance and Management, University of Bristol, UK, Postal: School of Economics, Finance and Management, University of Bristol, UK

Journal of Forecasting, 2010, vol. 29, issue 6, 523-535

Abstract: Value-at-risk (VaR) forecasting generally relies on a parametric density function of portfolio returns that ignores higher moments or assumes them constant. In this paper, we propose a simple approach to forecasting of a portfolio VaR. We employ the Gram-Charlier expansion (GCE) augmenting the standard normal distribution with the first four moments, which are allowed to vary over time. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the GCE approach to other models of VaR forecasting and conclude that it provides accurate and robust estimates of the realized VaR. In spite of its simplicity, on our dataset GCE outperforms other estimates that are generated by both constant and time-varying higher-moments models. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:6:p:523-535

DOI: 10.1002/for.1155

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