Economics at your fingertips  

The role of age‐structured education data for economic growth forecasts

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma () and Tapas Mishra ()

Journal of Forecasting, 2011, vol. 30, issue 2, 249-267

Abstract: This paper utilizes for the first time age-structured human capital data for economic growth forecasting. We concentrate on pooled cross‐country data of 65 countries over six 5‐year periods (1970–2000) and consider specifications chosen by model selection criteria, Bayesian model averaging methodologies based on in‐sample and out‐of‐sample goodness of fit and on adaptive regression by mixing. The results indicate that forecast averaging and exploiting the demographic dimension of education data improve economic growth forecasts systematically. In particular, the results are very promising for improving economic growth predictions in developing countries. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Keywords: economic growth; education data; forecasting; adaptive regression; Bayesian model averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Forecasting is currently edited by Derek W. Bunn

More articles in Journal of Forecasting from John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing ().

Page updated 2019-08-12
Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:249-267