The U.S. Housing Market and the Pricing of Risk: Fundamental Analysis and Market Sentiment

Changha Jin, Gokce Soydemir () and Owen Tidwell

Journal of Real Estate Research, 2014, vol. 36, issue 2, 187-220

Abstract: In this study, we explore the pricing patterns of the U.S. residential real estate market in the context of the recent housing bubble and subsequent deflation. We examine 10 consolidated metropolitan statistical areas and construct excess residential market return per risk measured by standard deviation, a standard Sharpe ratio measure. Then, using an error correction model, we regress excess residential market return per risk on fundamental market risk factors from a range of demand- and supply-side variables together with a non-fundamental based sentiment variable we calculated from the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Index. Our long-run findings reveal that in addition to a fundamental-based model documenting pricing to be a function of both demand- and supply-side variables, non-fundamental based (irrational) consumer sentiment is a significant exogenous variable in the pricing pattern of U.S. residential real estate. The applicability of an irrational sentiment component implies that previously unexplained (arguably irrational) behaviors have a strong link to consumer's pricing of residential housing.

JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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