The Cascade GIS Diffusion Model for Measuring Housing Absorption by Small Area with a Case Study of St. Lucie County, Florida

Grant Ian Thrall (), Charles F. Sidman, Susan Elshaw Thrall () and Timothy J. Fik
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Grant Ian Thrall: Department of Geography University of Florida Gainesvilles, Florida 326011, http://web.geog.ufl.edu/
Charles F. Sidman: Department of Geography University of Florida Gainesvilles, Florida 326011, http://web.geog.ufl.edu/
Susan Elshaw Thrall: Computer Science Lake City Community College Lake City, Florida 32055, http://www.lakecity.cc.fl.us/
Timothy J. Fik: Department of Geography University of Florida Gainesvilles, Florida 326011, http://web.geog.ufl.edu/

Journal of Real Estate Research, 1993, vol. 8, issue 3, 401-420

Abstract: The geographer's spatial diffusion theory is combined with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to provide a new framework for predicting residential single-family development patterns. We refer to the model as a multiple-state 'Cascade' GIS diffusion model. Parameter calibration is done using two-stage least squares. The model predicts new housing built and purchased by small submarket. Our example submarket is at the census tract level; a smaller submarket could have been chosen. The contribution to housing forecasting literature is a structural model that captures the spatial diffusion process at various geographical scales. Model estimation and forecasts are facilitated using GIS technology via a high resolution and high precision database using county property tax bills.

JEL-codes: L85 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1993
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