The Efficiency of ‘In-Play’ Australian Rules Football Betting Markets

Richard Ryall () and Anthony Bedford ()
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Richard Ryall: RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
Anthony Bedford: RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

International Journal of Sport Finance, 2010, vol. 5, issue 3, 193-207

Abstract: This paper examines the efficiency of the “in-play” Australian Rules football fixed odds betting market at quarter time, half time, and three quarter time. Tests of semi-strong efficiency are performed on the 2009 AFL season using logistic regression analysis. The results demonstrate that as the match progresses, there is a significant bias against the team that is currently leading—a bias that increases when the team that is leading is also the away-favorite. This bias is shown to yield significant profits utilizing simple betting strategies.

Keywords: market efficiency; in-play; sport economics; betting markets; Australian Rules football (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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International Journal of Sport Finance is currently edited by Arne Feddersen, Babatunde Buraimo, Joachim Prinz and Jane Ruseski

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