 bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility RateHana Ševčíková, Leontine Alkema and Adrian Raftery Journal of Statistical Software, 2011, vol. 043, issue i01 Abstract: The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the post-transition phase. The computationally intensive part of the projection model is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the parameters of the drift term. This article summarizes the projection model and describes the basic steps to generate probabilistic projections, as well as other functionalities such as projecting aggregate outcomes and dealing with missing values. Date: 2011-07-23 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:jss:jstsof:v:043:i01 Access Statistics for this article Journal of Statistical Software is currently edited by Bettina Grün, Edzer Pebesma and Achim Zeileis More articles in Journal of Statistical Software from Foundation for Open Access Statistics |
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