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APPLICATION OF THE DELPHI METHOD TO THE FORECASTING OF LONG-TERM TRENDS IN ROAD FREIGHT, LOGISTICS AND RELATED CO2 EMISSIONS

Maya Piecyk and Alan McKinnon

Articles, 2013, vol. 40, issue 2

Abstract: A Delphi survey is a popular forecasting technique that can be applied to a wide range of research problems and disciplines. It is particularly useful in mid- and long-term forecasting. This paper reviews applications of the method to the field of freight transport and logistics and assesses the usefulness of Delphi-derived predictions of long-term freight and associated environmental trends. It presents, as a case study, the experience of a large two-round Delphi survey undertaken in the UK to elicit projections of long-term trends in a number of road freight and logistics variables. These projections were then used to model UK road freight-related CO2 emissions up to 2020.

Date: 2013
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