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Asset Pricing Using Trading Volumes in a Hidden Regime-Switching Environment

Robert Elliott () and Tak Kuen Siu

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 2015, vol. 22, issue 2, 133-149

Abstract: By utilizing information about prices and trading volumes, we discuss the pricing of European contingent claims in a continuous-time hidden regime-switching environment. Hidden market sentiments described by the states of a continuous-time, finite-state, hidden Markov chain represent a common factor for an asset’s drift and volatility, as well as its trading volumes. Using observations about trading volumes, we present a filtered estimate of the hidden common factor. The asset pricing problem is then considered in a filtered market, where the hidden drift and volatility are replaced by their filtered estimates. We adopt the Esscher transform to select an equivalent martingale measure for pricing and derive a partial-differential integral equation for the option price. Copyright Springer Japan 2015

Keywords: Asset pricing; Trading volumes; Hidden Markov models; Filtering; Esscher transform; PDIE (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:133-149