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Expectations Hypothesis and Term Structure of Interest Rates: An Evidence from Emerging Market

Hassan Shareef () and Santhakumar Shijin ()
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Hassan Shareef: Pondicherry University
Santhakumar Shijin: Pondicherry University

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 2016, vol. 23, issue 2, 137-152

Abstract: Abstract The integration of emerging economies with developed economies has changed the behaviour of interest rates and exchange rate fluctuation. The current study tries to analyse the implication of expectation hypothesis (EH) and term structures of interest rates between India and US. Using vector auto regressive estimates, the study tries to test the dynamic interdependence of interest rates on exchange rate fluctuation. Further, the study estimates Granger causality tests and Impulse Response Functions to test the behaviour of interest rate movements for a period of nineteen years ranging from June 1996 to June 2015.The empirical results of the study show evidence in line with the existence of EH in the case of emerging market. Nevertheless, in the case of advanced economies we do not find any evidence for EH. The findings revealed that the spread between long and short rate of India is influenced by short-term interest rates and past values of Indian spread. This implies that the fluctuations in the long rate over the short rate evidenced the strong presence of EH as far as emerging economy is concerned.To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in Indian market, which tests the role of EH in interest rate fluctuations along with exchange rate. Since majority of the studies on term structure of interest rates focus on developed markets, the present study is an attempt to test the causal relationship between developed and developing economies.

Keywords: Term structure; Foreign exchange; Expectations hypothesis; Vector auto-regression; Liquidity premium (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E43 F31 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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