Direct Estimation of Lead–Lag Relationships Using Multinomial Dynamic Time Warping

Katsuya Ito () and Ryuta Sakemoto
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Katsuya Ito: The University of Tokyo

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 2020, vol. 27, issue 3, No 1, 325-342

Abstract: Abstract This paper investigates the lead–lag relationships in high-frequency data. We propose multinomial dynamic time warping (MDTW) that deals with non-synchronous observation, vast data, and time-varying lead–lag. MDTW directly estimates the lead–lags without lag candidates. Its computational complexity is linear with respect to the number of observation and it does not depend on the number of lag candidates. The experiments adopting artificial data and market data illustrate the effectiveness of our method compared to the existing methods.

Keywords: Lead–lag relationships; High frequency trading; Dynamic time warping (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C58 C63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s10690-019-09295-z

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