Nonlinear Relationship Between Investor Sentiment and Conditional Volatility in Emerging Equity Markets

Rameeza Andleeb () and Arshad Hassan ()
Additional contact information
Rameeza Andleeb: Capital University of Science and Technology
Arshad Hassan: Capital University of Science and Technology

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 2025, vol. 32, issue 1, No 7, 147-165

Abstract: Abstract The present study aims to identify the non-linear relationship of bullish and bearish investor sentiment with conditional volatility. It is conducted in emerging equity markets of Brazil, India, Pakistan, Russia, Indonesia, South Africa, and China. The data regarding share prices, shares outstanding, and trading volume is collected from the representative indices for a period from 2001 to 2020. Investor Sentiment Index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis and decomposed into bullish and bearish investor sentiment. The GARCH model is applied to generate conditional volatility and the Non-linear Auto Regressive Moving Average model is applied to analyze the asymmetric relationship between conditional volatility and investor sentiment at the country level. The Panel GARCH model is applied to generate conditional volatility for panel data, and the Non-linear Dynamic Auto Regressive Moving Average model is applied to investigate the nonlinear relation of investor sentiment with volatility. Bullish and bearish investor sentiments show a significant effect in generating conditional volatility in the markets in both linear as well as nonlinear settings.

Keywords: Conditional volatility; Non-linearity; Behavioral finance; Noise (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-024-09449-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:32:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-024-09449-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/10690/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10690-024-09449-8

Access Statistics for this article

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets is currently edited by Jiro Akahori

More articles in Asia-Pacific Financial Markets from Springer, Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().