Credit Scorecards & Forecasting Default Events – A Novel Story of Non-financial Listed Companies in Pakistan

Jahanzaib Alvi () and Imtiaz Arif
Additional contact information
Jahanzaib Alvi: IQRA University
Imtiaz Arif: IQRA University

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 2025, vol. 32, issue 4, No 11, 1459-1485

Abstract: Abstract This study innovates in credit default prediction in Pakistan by developing, calibrating, and recalibrating machine learning-based credit scorecards for non-financial listed firms, leveraging extensive financial ratio analysis. This study innovates in credit default prediction in Pakistan by developing, calibrating, and recalibrating machine learning-based credit scorecards for non-financial listed firms, leveraging extensive financial ratio analysis. Identifies 12 key financial ratios out of 71 remained vital for default prediction, with Random Forest and Artificial Neural Networks leading in scorecard performance. This marks Pakistan’s first detailed scorecard approach as a potential alternative to traditional banking systems. Offers advanced risk assessment tools (credit scorecards) for improved credit risk management, aiding policymakers and finance professionals in decision-making. This research distinguishes itself through a detailed longitudinal study of non-financial Pakistani firms and a comprehensive evaluation of machine learning algorithms for default prediction. By exploiting various financial ratios to develop scorecards (an alternative of Internal Ratings-based – IRB System), it offers new insights into risk evaluation and significantly advances financial risk management. Acknowledging data limitations and variable exclusions, it sets the stage for further exploration of credit risk environment in context of Pakistan.

Keywords: Credit scorecard development; Machine learning; Financial ratio analysis; Credit risk management; Non-financial firms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10690-024-09494-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:32:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10690-024-09494-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/finance/journal/10690/PS2

DOI: 10.1007/s10690-024-09494-3

Access Statistics for this article

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets is currently edited by Jiro Akahori

More articles in Asia-Pacific Financial Markets from Springer, Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().