Holdover Bias in the College Football Betting Market

Randall W. Bennett ()
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Randall W. Bennett: Gonzaga University

Atlantic Economic Journal, 2019, vol. 47, issue 1, No 9, 103-110

Abstract: Abstract This article investigated the efficiency of the college football betting market for the following season’s first game for members of the final Associated Press Top 25 Poll. Market inefficiency was identified, with bets against these teams winning significantly more than half the time. Separate analysis of the top 10 and the remaining members of the Top 25 indicated that the inefficiency was due to the previous season’s top 10 being significantly overvalued in the betting market at the start of the next season. Bets against the top 10 teams won significantly more than the 52.4% necessary for profitability. This was especially true when they played non-Power 5 schools. Efficiency could not be rejected for the teams ranked 11 through 25. The study contributed to the literature on betting market efficiency by providing evidence that bettors could be backward-looking and over-rely on outdated information.

Keywords: College football; Betting efficiency; AP poll; L83; G14; D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11293-019-09611-y

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