Efficiency, Profitability, and College Football: do Bettors Overrate the Major Conferences in Interconference Play?

Evan Moore () and James Francisco
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Evan Moore: AUM College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences
James Francisco: AUM College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences

Atlantic Economic Journal, 2019, vol. 47, issue 2, No 5, 159-167

Abstract: Abstract This article tests the efficient market hypothesis and the profitability of a simple betting strategy in college football. All games are examined that have a point spread for inter-conference matches involving a Power Five/Automatic Qualifying team from September 2003 through January 2016. The tests reject the efficient market hypothesis for these matchups, with a large subset of matches driving this result. The betting strategy evidence suggests it is nonrandom but it is not particularly profitable for the entire sample. However, there is evidence that betting on certain conferences to cover the point spread (win the bet) results in profitable returns over the period.

Keywords: College football; Financial markets; Gambling; Recreation; L83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11293-019-09616-7

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