Economics at your fingertips  

Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso

Adam G. Walke and Thomas Fullerton ()
Additional contact information
Adam G. Walke: University of Texas at El Paso

Atlantic Economic Journal, 2019, vol. 47, issue 2, 179-191

Abstract: Abstract This study evaluates the accuracy of previously published econometric forecasts for seven lodging sector variables that measure hotel activity in El Paso, Texas. The hotel forecasts have been generated annually using an econometric model of the El Paso metropolitan economy from 2006 forward. Predictive accuracy is evaluated relative to random walk benchmarks. Assessment is completed using both descriptive forecast error summary statistics as well as formal statistical tests. The econometric model outperforms the random walk benchmarks for a majority of the variables analyzed. However, statistical tests of forecast error differentials do not yield conclusive evidence in favor of the econometric historical track record. Tests of directional forecast accuracy also produce mixed results. Although the structural econometric model of hotel business conditions appears to provide useful predictive information, analysts and planners should also monitor recent history closely.

Keywords: Hotel econometric models; Forecast evaluation; Statistical tests; Directional accuracy; El Paso; Z30; C52; C53; R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/11293/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

Atlantic Economic Journal is currently edited by Kathleen S. Virgo

More articles in Atlantic Economic Journal from Springer, International Atlantic Economic Society Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2019-12-07
Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:47:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11293-019-09620-x