Why did the United States Evolve from the Largest International Creditor in 1980 to the Largest International Debtor in 1990?

Robert Aliber ()
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Robert Aliber: University of Chicago

Atlantic Economic Journal, 2020, vol. 48, issue 4, No 1, 405-411

Abstract: Abstract Remarkable transformation of the U.S. international investment position occurred over the last 40 years. U.S. net foreign assets were larger than combined net foreign assets of all other creditors. By 1990, foreign-owned U.S. securities and real assets were larger than U.S. owned foreign securities and assets. This change occurred without the U.S. Treasury borrowing in foreign currency and few U.S. firms borrowing, reflecting a surge in foreign purchases of U.S. securities. Inferences from the currency composition of portfolio changes of those who acquired U.S. dollar securities suggest that foreign savers took the initiative on cross-border investment inflows. The U.S. could not have developed a larger capital account surplus after 1980 unless a similar increase in the U.S. current account deficit occurred. The primary factor that led to the U.S. current account deficit increase was the surge in U.S. stocks and other asset prices, resulting in a U.S. household wealth surge and consumption boom. The foreign saving inflow displaced domestic saving. In addition, an increase in the price of the U.S. dollar led to expenditure-switching from U.S. goods to increasingly less expensive foreign goods. When investor demand for U.S. dollar securities declined, the U.S. dollar price fell in 1992, 2002, and 2020 and the price of U.S. dollar securities declined. The paper discusses the source of the change in the U.S. international investment position, the flow of foreign saving to the U.S., cyclical variability in the foreign saving flow to the U.S., and the potential impact of an adjustable parity arrangement.

Keywords: International investment; Capital flows; Adjustable parity; Foreign saving; Crowding out; F33; G01; G15; G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11293-020-09695-x

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