Out of the Spotlight: A Long-Run Approach to College American Football Attendance in Division III

Paul A. Natke (), Gregory A. Falls and Linlan Xiao
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Paul A. Natke: Central Michigan University
Gregory A. Falls: Central Michigan University
Linlan Xiao: Central Michigan University

Atlantic Economic Journal, 2025, vol. 53, issue 3, No 5, 183-195

Abstract: Abstract American college football attendance in Division III, the lowest level of National Collegiate Athletic Association-sanctioned play, has been ignored. Attendance and associated financial flows are far lower than the highest levels of competition. Although the scale of operations is lower, the relative indirect benefits to Division III colleges can be substantial. This study takes a long-run approach using a balanced panel (208 teams over 20 years) to discover primary driving forces on average season attendance from among economic, team performance and demographic measures. Fixed- and random-effects models are estimated. The state’s monthly unemployment rate and real travel cost exert no impact. Attendance decreases as real incomes rise, suggesting these games are inferior goods. Winning games matters. More wins in the current season and the previous two seasons, and more playoff appearances in the last ten years all increase attendance. Habit persistence is present although its magnitude decreases as the lag increases. An increase in lifetime winning percentage also increases attendance in the random-effects model. Greater male undergraduate enrollment increases attendance. Higher county populations reduce attendance in the random-effects model. Findings suggest that building a successful team, as measured by winning games, is the most important determinant of fan attendance in Division III. This relationship holds in the short run (i.e., current season, recent previous seasons) and over longer periods (last ten years and lifetime of the program). Even at this lower level of competition, there is pressure on football coaches to win.

Keywords: American college football; Attendance; Time series; Panel regression; Z2; L83; D12; D21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s11293-025-09830-6

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