Capturing the Regime-Switching and Memory Properties of Interest Rates

Xiaojing Xi and Rogemar Mamon ()

Computational Economics, 2014, vol. 44, issue 3, 307-337

Abstract: We propose a mean-reverting interest rate model whose mean-reverting level, speed of mean-reversion and volatility are all modulated by a weak Markov chain (WMC). This model features a simple way to capture the regime-switching evolution of the parameters as well as the memory property of the data. Concentrating on the second-order WMC framework, we derive the filters of the WMC and other auxiliary processes through a change of reference probability measure. Optimal estimates of model parameters are provided by employing the EM algorithm. The $$h$$ h -step ahead forecasts under our proposed set-up are examined and compared with those under the usual Markovian regime-switching framework. We obtain better goodness-of-fit performance based on our numerical results generated from the implementation of WMC-based filters to a 10-year dataset of weekly short-term-maturity Canadian yield rates. Some statistical inference issues of the proposed modelling approach are also discussed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Weak hidden Markov model; Parameter estimation; Regime-switching; Memory property; C51; G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10614-013-9396-5

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