Measuring the Resilience to the Covid-19 Pandemic of Eurozone Economies with Their 2050 Forecasts

Pierre Rostan (), Alexandra Rostan and John Wall
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Pierre Rostan: American University of Iraq Baghdad
Alexandra Rostan: American University of Iraq Baghdad
John Wall: American University of Iraq Baghdad

Computational Economics, 2024, vol. 63, issue 3, No 9, 1137-1157

Abstract: Abstract This paper measures the resilience of Eurozone economies following the economic shock of the Covid-19 pandemic that hit the global economy. Q2 2022 to Q4 2050 real GDP forecasts of 17 countries of the Eurozone are generated with wavelet analysis using historical real GDP quarterly data excluding the pandemic (Q4 1994 up to Q3 2019) and including the pandemic (Q4 1994 up to the Q1 2022). The means of the Q2 2022 up to Q4 2050 forecasts of the quarterly growth rates (annualized) are computed with the two sets of historical data including and excluding the pandemic. The difference in mean forecasts measures the resilience of economies during the pandemic, the more positive the difference, the stronger the resilience. Based on this indicator of resilience, among high GDP countries, Italy is the most resilient economy towards the Covid-19 pandemic (ranked No 1 among 17 countries), Germany is the least (No 16). Among medium GDP countries, Finland is the most resilient economy towards the Covid-19 pandemic (ranked No 5), Greece is the least (No 14). Among low GDP countries, Malta is the most resilient economy towards the Covid-19 pandemic (ranked No 6), Latvia is the least (No 17).

Keywords: GDP; Spectral analysis; ARIMA; Forecasting; Eurozone economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 C5 C53 E17 E3 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10425-z

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