Forecasting House Prices through Credit Conditions: A Bayesian Approach

Rosa Drift (), Jan Haan () and Peter Boelhouwer ()
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Rosa Drift: Delft University of Technology
Jan Haan: Delft University of Technology
Peter Boelhouwer: Delft University of Technology

Computational Economics, 2024, vol. 64, issue 6, No 10, 3405 pages

Abstract: Abstract As housing development and housing market policies involve many long-term decisions, improving house price predictions could benefit the functioning of the housing market. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate how house price predictions can be improved. In particular, the merits of Bayesian estimation techniques in enhancing house price predictions are examined in this study. We compare the pseudo out-of-sample forecasting power of three Bayesian models—a Bayesian vector autoregression in levels (BVAR-l), a Bayesian vector autoregression in differences (BVAR-d), and a Bayesian vector error correction model (BVECM)—and their non-Bayesian counterparts. These techniques are compared using a theoretical model that predicts the borrowing capacity of credit-constrained and unconstrained households to affect house prices. The findings indicate that the Bayesian models outperform their non-Bayesian counterparts, and within the class of Bayesian models, the BVAR-d is found to be more accurate than the BVAR-l. For the two winning Bayesian models, i.e., the BVECM and the BVAR-d, the difference in forecasting power is more ambiguous; which model prevails depends on the desired forecasting horizon and the state of the economy. Hence, both Bayesian models may be considered when conducting research on house prices.

Keywords: Forecasting; House prices; Bayesian VAR; Bayesian VECM; Cointegration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 E32 E37 G12 R21 R31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10542-9

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