Convergence Speed and Growth Patterns: A Dynamical Systems Approach

Javier García-Algarra (), Gonzalo Gómez-Bengoechea () and Mary Luz Mouronte-López ()
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Javier García-Algarra: Centro Universitario de Tecnología y Arte Digital
Gonzalo Gómez-Bengoechea: Universidad Pontificia Comillas - ICADE
Mary Luz Mouronte-López: Universidad Francisco de Vitoria

Computational Economics, 2025, vol. 65, issue 2, No 4, 615-636

Abstract: Abstract The middle-income trap is an empirical economic phenomenon characterized by the slowdown in the growth trend of a given country. There are different definitions of a stagnant economy, but they all require an anti-causal computation and are binary by nature. This paper proposes a general approach based on past values of GDP or GNI relative to a high-income country to detect not only middle-income traps but also paths that lead to potential stagnation. We characterize growth patterns and identify the development stage of different countries and regions using the conceptual and mathematical framework of dynamical systems theory. The results show a strong correlation between the fastest-converging economies and their investment attractiveness.

Keywords: Economic convergence; Growth patterns; Middle-income traps; Investment attractiveness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F44 F63 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10434-y

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