Economics at your fingertips  

Evaluating CPB’s Forecasts

Philip Hans Franses

De Economist, 2014, vol. 162, issue 3, 215-221

Abstract: This paper analyzes forecasts, for ten key annually observed economic variables for the Netherlands, created by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) for 1971–2007. These CPB forecasts are all manually modified model forecasts, where the model is a (very) large multi-equation macro model. The CPB forecasts are held against real-time forecasts obtained from simple autoregressive time series models, and for seven of the ten cases, CPB’s forecasts are significantly more accurate. Combining CPB’s forecasts with the real time autoregressive forecasts shows that four of the ten combined forecasts are significantly better than CPB’s forecasts, and seven of the ten are better than the time series forecasts. This suggests that CPB’s manual adjustment efforts could perhaps be directed to modifying simple model forecasts and not the forecasts from the own large macro model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Macro-economic forecasting; Forecast accuracy; Forecast evaluation; E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link) (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10645/PS2

Access Statistics for this article

De Economist is currently edited by Rob Alessie, Bas ter Weel, Casper van Ewijk, Jan C. van Ours and Frank de Jong

More articles in De Economist from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

Page updated 2019-08-20
Handle: RePEc:kap:decono:v:162:y:2014:i:3:p:215-221