Evaluating CPB’s Forecasts
Philip Hans Franses
De Economist, 2014, vol. 162, issue 3, 215-221
This paper analyzes forecasts, for ten key annually observed economic variables for the Netherlands, created by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) for 1971–2007. These CPB forecasts are all manually modified model forecasts, where the model is a (very) large multi-equation macro model. The CPB forecasts are held against real-time forecasts obtained from simple autoregressive time series models, and for seven of the ten cases, CPB’s forecasts are significantly more accurate. Combining CPB’s forecasts with the real time autoregressive forecasts shows that four of the ten combined forecasts are significantly better than CPB’s forecasts, and seven of the ten are better than the time series forecasts. This suggests that CPB’s manual adjustment efforts could perhaps be directed to modifying simple model forecasts and not the forecasts from the own large macro model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014
Keywords: Macro-economic forecasting; Forecast accuracy; Forecast evaluation; E27 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:decono:v:162:y:2014:i:3:p:215-221
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... cs/journal/10645/PS2
Access Statistics for this article
De Economist is currently edited by Rob Alessie, Bas ter Weel, Casper van Ewijk, Jan C. van Ours and Frank de Jong
More articles in De Economist from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().