A young EU member’s ageing: budgetary and macroeconomic consequences of Slovenia’s demographic prospects

Klaus Weyerstrass and Reinhard Neck ()

Empirica, 2013, vol. 40, issue 3, 427-456

Abstract: In this paper, we simulate a macroeconometric model of Slovenia over the period 2012–2060, using the projected demographic development as input, and determine time paths for budgetary and macroeconomic variables under alternative assumptions about Slovenian policy instruments so as to limit budgetary pressures stemming from population ageing. The main macroeconomic indicators (growth, employment, price stability, sustainable public finances) are shown to depend on the assumed long-run policy options followed. It is demonstrated that the ageing of the Slovenian population projected in the demographic forecast leads to severe budgetary problems unless increases of the retirement age, rising social security contributions or reductions of state financed pensions are implemented. A reduction of the pension replacement rate turns out to be the most effective measure to cope with the budgetary implications of population ageing. However, none of the analysed policy measures is sufficient to stabilise the debt ratio. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Fiscal policy; Ageing; Slovenia; Pension economics; Public debt; E17; E37; H63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-013-9217-z (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:empiri:v:40:y:2013:i:3:p:427-456

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ration/journal/10663

DOI: 10.1007/s10663-013-9217-z

Access Statistics for this article

Empirica is currently edited by Fritz Breuss and Fritz Breuss

More articles in Empirica from Springer, Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().