Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach

Giancarlo Bruno

Empirica, 2014, vol. 41, issue 1, 37-52

Abstract: The consumer confidence index is a highly observed indicator among short-term analysts and news reporters and it is generally considered to convey some useful information about the short-term evolution of consumer expenditure. However, its usefulness in forecasting households consumption is sometimes questioned in empirical studies. A possible weakness can be due to the use of a linear functional form to model the relation between these two variables. Here, in order to overcome this issue, a non-parametric model is used, so that overly restrictive assumptions about the functional form can be avoided. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Keywords: Consumer confidence; Non-linear models; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-013-9228-9 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach (2012)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:empiri:v:41:y:2014:i:1:p:37-52

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ration/journal/10663

DOI: 10.1007/s10663-013-9228-9

Access Statistics for this article

Empirica is currently edited by Fritz Breuss and Fritz Breuss

More articles in Empirica from Springer, Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().