EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Is there a trade-off between procyclicality and revisions in EC trend TFP estimations?

Susanne Maidorn ()
Additional contact information
Susanne Maidorn: Office of the Austrian Fiscal Advisory Council c/o Oesterreichsiche Nationalbank

Empirica, 2018, vol. 45, issue 1, 59-82

Abstract: Abstract Potential output constitutes a central measure to determine compliance of the member states with the EU fiscal rules. The EU uses a production function approach to estimate potential output. In a Kalman filter model together with a Bayesian approach TFP is decomposed into a trend and a cycle. The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between two widely discussed issues of the EC estimate of potential output, procyclicality and the extent of revisions. Procyclicality of the TFP trend depends on the prior assumptions for the residual variance of the TFP cycle equation. Exploiting this, simulations over increasing values of the priors of the residual variance of the TFP cycle equation are run for eight EU countries, leading to decreasing procyclicality of TFP trend estimates. Procyclicality of the estimated TFP trend reduces the standard error of revisions for half of the countries considered, while it implies an increase for the other countries or has no effect. Thus there is a trade-off between procyclicality of the TFP trend and the revision error, but it is not so clear cut. The standard errors of revisions of real-time estimates of the TFP trend as a criterion of model selection could improve forecasts additionally to the marginal likelihood value employed by the EC.

Keywords: Potential output; Procyclicality; TFP; Revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D24 E32 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-016-9346-2 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9346-2

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ration/journal/10663

Access Statistics for this article

Empirica is currently edited by Fritz Breuss and Fritz Breuss

More articles in Empirica from Springer, Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla ().

 
Page updated 2019-11-16
Handle: RePEc:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9346-2