Quantifying uncertainty and identifying its impacts on the Turkish economy
Saygin Sahinoz () and
Evren Erdogan Cosar ()
Additional contact information
Saygin Sahinoz: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB)
Evren Erdogan Cosar: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB)
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Saygin Cevik ()
Empirica, 2020, vol. 47, issue 2, No 7, 365-387
Abstract In this study, we first construct indices reflecting the financial uncertainty and the uncertainty perception of different agents such as consumers, firms and forecasters. Next, we construct an economic uncertainty index for Turkey based on newspaper coverage frequency. Then, in a dynamic factor model framework, we combine these uncertainty indices to obtain an aggregate measure of economic uncertainty for the Turkish economy. Finally, by using this measure, we investigate the impact of uncertainty on economic activity. Empirical evidence shows that uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic activity in Turkey and the most severe effects of uncertainty are observed on investment.
Keywords: Uncertainty; Business cycle; Turkey (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C52 D81 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10663-018-9424-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
Working Paper: Quantifying Uncertainty and Identifying its Impacts on the Turkish Economy (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:empiri:v:47:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10663-018-9424-8
Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer. ... ration/journal/10663
Access Statistics for this article
Empirica is currently edited by Fritz Breuss and Fritz Breuss
More articles in Empirica from Springer, Austrian Institute for Economic Research, Austrian Economic Association Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().