From 2008–2011 Great Recession to COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of resilience metrics in European regions

Bogdan Ileanu () and Adrian Pana
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Adrian Pana: Center for Health Outcomes and Evaluation

Empirica, 2024, vol. 51, issue 4, No 6, 1037-1073

Abstract: Abstract We aim to clarify the usefulness of different measures of economic resilience in the context of global shocks. In relation to the Great Recession, Oil& European migrant crises, and COVID-19, we compute and validate from a statistical point of view, then characterize five metrics on 317 NUTS2 regions and 21 years. ROC curves and Cox regression compare them by the capacity to predict the post-shock state. Heterogenous behavior characterizes resistance, recovery, and loss. Furthermore, the non-linear resistance performs best in future state prediction, while the composite index has the lowest efficiency as a predictor of the regions’ recovery.

Keywords: Unemployment; Economic resilience; Composite index; COVID-19; Cox regression; ROC curve (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s10663-024-09621-3

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