Cross-country determinants of COVID19 mortality and the manipulation of death data in autocratic regimes

Aleksandra Nojković (), Milojko Arsić and Emilija Milošević
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Aleksandra Nojković: University of Belgrade
Milojko Arsić: University of Belgrade
Emilija Milošević: University of Belgrade

Empirica, 2025, vol. 52, issue 4, No 7, 839-862

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the official COVID19 mortality rate and the excess mortality rate during the COVID19 pandemic, as well as the factors that influenced the relative difference between these two rates. The analysis was carried out using a combination of monthly and annual data for 72 countries. From panel model estimates, we find that a lower rate of excess mortality was achieved in countries that applied stricter epidemiological measures and had a higher vaccination rate, a better health system, better institutions, a younger population, and a higher degree of democracy. The equations for the official mortality rate from COVID19 contain several theoretically unexpected results, raising doubts about the reliability of official data. The relative difference between the excess mortality rate and the official COVID19 mortality rate is greater in countries with a lower degree of democracy and less media freedom, which leads to the conclusion that autocratic regimes may have manipulated the official mortality data on COVID19, while part of this difference can be explained by a lower level of development, weaker institutions, a weaker health system, or a milder reaction of health policy during the pandemic. Econometric results suggest that the excess mortality rate is a more comprehensive and reliable indicator of the success of countries in mitigating the health consequences of the pandemic than official data on COVID19 mortality because it is less susceptible to political manipulation by autocratic polities.

Keywords: COVID19; Mortality rate; Data manipulation; Panel model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F5 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s10663-025-09660-4

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