Predicting joint replacement waiting times

Lauren Cipriano, Bert Chesworth, Chris Anderson and Gregory Zaric ()

Health Care Management Science, 2007, vol. 10, issue 2, 195-215

Abstract: Currently, the median waiting time for total hip and knee replacement in Ontario is greater than 6 months. Waiting longer than 6 months is not recommended and may result in lower post-operative benefits. We developed a simulation model to estimate the proportion of patients who would receive surgery within the recommended waiting time for surgery over a 10-year period considering a wide range of demand projections and varying the number of available surgeries. Using an estimate that demand will grow by approximately 8.7% each year for 10 years, we determined that increasing available supply by 10% each year was unable to maintain the status quo for 10 years. Reducing waiting times within 10 years required that the annual supply of surgeries increased by 12% or greater. Allocating surgeries across regions in proportion to each region’s waiting time resulted in a more efficient distribution of surgeries and a greater reduction in waiting times in the long-term compared to allocation strategies based only on the region’s population size. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

Keywords: Waiting times; Joint replacement; Queuing simulation; Projecting demand for health care services; Surgical allocation planning; Resource allocation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s10729-007-9013-z

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