Determining minimum staffing levels during snowstorms using an integrated simulation, regression, and reliability model

Amber Kunkel () and Laura McLay ()

Health Care Management Science, 2013, vol. 16, issue 1, 14-26

Abstract: Emergency medical services (EMS) provide life-saving care and hospital transport to patients with severe trauma or medical conditions. Severe weather events, such as snow events, may lead to adverse patient outcomes by increasing call volumes and service times. Adequate staffing levels during such weather events are critical for ensuring that patients receive timely care. To determine staffing levels that depend on weather, we propose a model that uses a discrete event simulation of a reliability model to identify minimum staffing levels that provide timely patient care, with regression used to provide the input parameters. The system is said to be reliable if there is a high degree of confidence that ambulances can immediately respond to a given proportion of patients (e.g., 99 %). Four weather scenarios capture varying levels of snow falling and snow on the ground. An innovative feature of our approach is that we evaluate the mitigating effects of different extrinsic response policies and intrinsic system adaptation. The models use data from Hanover County, Virginia to quantify how snow reduces EMS system reliability and necessitates increasing staffing levels. The model and its analysis can assist in EMS preparedness by providing a methodology to adjust staffing levels during weather events. A key observation is that when it is snowing, intrinsic system adaptation has similar effects on system reliability as one additional ambulance. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

Keywords: Emergency medical services; Regression; Erlang loss models; Discrete event simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10729-012-9206-y (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:14-26

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10729

DOI: 10.1007/s10729-012-9206-y

Access Statistics for this article

Health Care Management Science is currently edited by Yasar Ozcan

More articles in Health Care Management Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().