Use of a mathematical model to evaluate breast cancer screening policy

Rose Baker

Health Care Management Science, 1998, vol. 1, issue 2, 103-113

Abstract: A model of breast cancer screening was developed, in which the processes of tumour origination and growth, detection of tumours at screening, presentation of women with cancers to their GP, and of survival after diagnosis were modelled parametrically. The model was fitted to data from the North‐West of the UK, for 413 women who screened positive, and for 761 women who developed interval cancers. Model validation comprised verification that the final model fitted the data adequately, together with the comparison of model predictions with findings by other workers. The mathematical model was used to assess different screening policies, and to ask “what if” questions. Taking the cost of breast cancer to be the sum of the cost of screening and the cost of PYLL (person years of life lost due to cancer), the optimal screening policy was calculated. The costs of the current policy and of other possible screening policies were found, together with their effects on life lost and on mortality. The tentative conclusion was that if monies can be found to extend the screening programme, for example to carry out one more screen per woman, most benefit would be obtained by reducing the start age of screening by 3 years. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1998

Date: 1998
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1019046619402 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:kap:hcarem:v:1:y:1998:i:2:p:103-113

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/journal/10729

DOI: 10.1023/A:1019046619402

Access Statistics for this article

Health Care Management Science is currently edited by Yasar Ozcan

More articles in Health Care Management Science from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().