The theory of probability: A key element in Keynes' revolution

Thomas Cate and L. Johnson

International Advances in Economic Research, 1998, vol. 4, issue 4, 324-334

Abstract: Keynes believed that the "general theory" would create a revolution in economics. The extent to which his prophesy was realized, in part, depends on the definition of "key elements" in the general theory itself. This paper presents one of the key elements that led Keynes to believe the general theory might indeed create such a revolution. This key element is his theory of probability. Keynes' theory of probability evolved over time and resulted in his employing two distinctly different theories of probability in the general theory—one, implicitly, the other, explicitly. The first was an objective degree of belief theory of probability that was implicitly employed in the general theory. The second was a subjective degree of belief theory of probability that Keynes explicitly developed in the general theory. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1998

Date: 1998
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DOI: 10.1007/BF02295686

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