Simulation model of the polish economy

Jakub Gutenbaum and MichaŁ Inkielman

International Advances in Economic Research, 1999, vol. 5, issue 3, 308-320

Abstract: This paper presents some results of the simulation model of the Polish economy in transition from the planned to market one. The simulation model is nonlinear and dynamic. It consists of 800 balance equations, 40 of which are difference state equations. The basic time unit is one quarter while the calculation horizon spans between three and 10 years. It was calibrated to the 1994–96 statistical data. The model contains the aggregates of production (divided between the state and private sectors and three production branches), households, public sector, banking system, and foreign trade. The simulation attempts to forecast chosen macroeconomic variables resulting from different scenarios. Sets of effective (Pareto-optimal) solutions and effective growth paths of economy were obtained. The simulation results help to better understand the macroeconomic process in the transition period and can be useful for central-level decisionmakers. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 1999

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1007/BF02296414

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